NTT INDYCAR SERIES points leader Alex Palou can take comfort heading to next weekend’s season finale at Nashville Superspeedway as history suggests his points lead is safe. Only once in the past 11 years has the series leader been overtaken in the year’s last race, and it took offering double points to competitors and late contact to do that.
Scott Dixon was third in points at the end of the 2015 season when the series arrived at Sonoma Raceway. Juan Pablo Montoya led Graham Rahal by 34 points and Dixon by 47, but mid-race drama shook up the standings.
Rahal took contact from Sebastian Saavedra, dropping him way back in the running order (he finished 18th). Montoya got too racy with Team Penske teammate Will Power. Their contact sent Power spinning and broke Montoya’s front wing, which put a big hurt on Montoya’s championship pursuit.
As Dixon took the checkered flag, Montoya trailed in sixth place. Remarkably, they finished the season with the same number of points – 556 – and Dixon took the title via a tiebreaker.
Since then, it’s been status quo for the series leader through the final race, including Palou’s championship years in 2021 and 2023.
Palou entered the last race of his first title season in a situation similar to this year – he led Pato O’Ward by 35 points heading to the street race in Long Beach, California. Palou did his part, finishing fourth, as O’Ward retired early and finished 28th. Palou would gladly take a repeat of that in the Big Machine Music City Grand Prix Presented by Gainbridge on Sunday, Sept. 15 (3 p.m. ET, NBC, Peacock, INDYCAR Radio Network).
There is one big difference between this year’s season finale and the previous nine: This season ends on an oval track for the first time since 2014. As last weekend’s Hy-Vee Milwaukee Mile 250s doubleheader showed, oval races in this series can be wildly unpredictable. With Palou having electrical issues ahead of the race’s beginning, Power spun coming to a late restart. Instead of likely finishing in at least the top five or perhaps evening winning the race to grab the points lead, Power finished 10th and now faces long odds to overtake Palou.
Palou will secure his third championship in the past four years by finishing ninth or better in next weekend’s event, regardless of how Power fares. Assuming Palou earns the minimum number of points for starting the race, Power will need to finish in the top three to have any chance at the title. Third-place Scott McLaughlin will be eliminated once Palou begins the race.
A look at how the championships have been decided at the season’s finale since unification in 2008:
2008: Dixon entered the race with a 30-point lead over Helio Castroneves. The Brazilian won the race at Chicagoland Speedway, but Dixon took the title by finishing second.
2009: Dixon held a six-point lead on Dario Franchitti and a nine-point lead on Ryan Briscoe. Franchitti won the race at Homestead-Miami Speedway to earn his second series championship as Briscoe finished second and Dixon was third.
2010: Power brought a 12-point lead over Franchitti to Homestead-Miami Speedway, but he lost the title due to a crash as Franchitti finished eighth.
2011: Power again led heading to the final, by 11 points over Franchitti. At Kentucky Speedway, Franchitti finished second to take his fourth title, Power 19th.
2012: For a third straight year, Power entered the finale with the lead, by 17 points over Ryan Hunter-Reay. The race at Auto Club Speedway didn’t go well for Power, who crashed while racing Hunter-Reay. That gave the championship to RHR.
2013: Dixon took a 25-point lead over Castroneves into the race at Auto Club Speedway. Dixon finished fifth for his second season title, Castroneves sixth. That was the first year double points were awarded at the last race of the season.
2014: Power entered the Fontana finale up 51 points on Castroneves. Power brought the car home in ninth as Castroneves settled for 14th. That was the first of Power’s two season championships.
2015: Montoya’s advantage heading to Sonoma was 34 points over Graham Rahal and 47 over Dixon. But Dixon won the race and the title after Rahal and Montoya were involved in separate incidents. Double points aided Dixon’s comeback.
2016: Simon Pagenaud arrived at Sonoma with a 43-point lead on Power. Pagenaud won the race from the pole, taking the championship as Power finished 20th.
2017: Josef Newgarden had the slimmest leader margin since unification, clutching a three-point margin over Dixon with Castroneves and Pagenaud 22 and 34 points in arrears, respectively. Pagenaud won the Sonoma race, but Newgarden took his first title with a second-place finish from the pole.
2018: Dixon went to Sonoma with a 29-point lead over Alexander Rossi. Dixon finished second to take the title. Rossi was seventh.
2019: Newgarden’s lead on Rossi was 41 points, and his lead on Pagenaud was 42 points. Newgarden took the crown at WeatherTech Raceway Laguna Seca by finishing eighth despite Pagenaud winding up in the fourth spot and Rossi in the sixth. That was the last time double points were awarded at the finale.
2020: Dixon held a 32-point lead on Newgarden heading to the street race in St. Petersburg, Florida. Newgarden won the race, but Dixon took the title by finishing third.
2021: Palou led O’Ward by 35 points and Newgarden by 48 points. Newgarden won the Long Beach race, but it wasn’t enough to overhaul Palou, who finished fourth for his first championship. O’Ward was 28th.
2022: Power’s 20-point lead on Newgarden and Dixon held up at Laguna Seca as he finished third. Newgarden was second, Dixon 12th.
2023: Palou had already clinched the title, the first INDYCAR SERIES driver to do so in advance of the season finale since Sebastien Bourdais in 2007. Therefore, the race at Laguna Seca was a formality, and Palou brought it home in third place.
2024: Palou leads Power by 33 points. Power finished 11th in his only race at Nashville Superspeedway (in 2008 while driving for KV Racing Technology). Palou has never tested or raced at the track.