INDYCAR.com has identified key storylines from the advanced statistics to preview the first of five races that will decide who holds the Astor Challenge Cup as NTT INDYCAR SERIES champion. Four of those five events will take place on ovals.
1. Which Team Penske driver is favorite? The 2024 NTT INDYCAR SERIES season ends with four oval races in the final five events. And while that might play into the hands of Team Penske, the driver it favors may not be the first Team Penske driver you'd first think of.
While Josef Newgarden has won five of the last eight oval races in the series, Scott McLaughlin leads all this season’s oval competitors in average starting position (1.33) and average running position (2.73) and is tied with Pato O’Ward for average finishing position (3.33). The New Zealander has led nearly half the laps on ovals this season, and his 324 oval laps led is more than double second-place Alex Palou (104 oval laps led).
Each Team Penske driver has won on an oval this season, and both McLaughlin (2.73) and Newgarden (8.30) rank in the top five of average running position among drivers who have completed 695 laps or more.
2. Don’t Discount Palou. Two-time NTT INDYCAR SERIES champion Alex Palou has yet to score his first win on an oval, but ovals aren’t the kryptonite they are perceived to be for the Spaniard.
Even though a crash at Iowa lowered Palou’s average oval finish in 2024 to 10.0, his average finish on ovals over the past four years is 7.75, a figure that’s better than that of Will Power (11.05), Colton Herta (13.94), McLaughlin (7.94) and Kyle Kirkwood (16.69).
Palou ranks fourth in average oval starting position (6.33) and ranks second among all oval competitors with an average running position of 5.53. But that number doesn’t count the 75 laps where Palou wasn’t on track at Iowa.
The moral of these metrics? Don’t be too quick to assume Palou is in danger of losing his points lead just because ovals comprise the bulk of the remaining schedule.
3. Keep an eye on… Ed Carpenter Racing’s Rinus VeeKay is one of six drivers to complete every lap on an oval this season. The Dutchman’s average oval finish is 7.67, which ranks fifth among all competitors. The four drivers ahead of VeeKay – Newgarden, Scott Dixon, McLaughlin and O’Ward – all have recorded 10 or more top-five finishes on ovals since 2021.
Alexander Rossi, looking for a seat for the 2025 season, ranks second in average starting position (5.67), is tied for third in average running position with teammate O’Ward (6.4) and ranks sixth in average finish (9.0) despite a 15th-place finish in the second race of the Iowa doubleheader. But coming off surgery for a thumb injury suffered last month on the streets of Toronto, will it be a challenge to continue his strong performance on ovals?